Analyzing Indonesia’s Future Under Prabowo-Gibran Administration: What Lies Ahead?

The General Election Commission (KPU) has announced the victory of Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka as the elected President and Vice President on 20 March, 2024.  What does this mean for Indonesia moving forward?

In brief, under Prabowo’s leadership, Indonesia is likely to continue on its democratic path with stable governance but may adopt a more assertive approach. The former military general is known for his candor, with his governing style reflecting a more rigid and bureaucratic approach. This implies that, unlike Jokowi’s pragmatic, action-oriented style, Prabowo would likely heavily rely on his support team to drive strategic goals. Prabowo is also expected to continue Jokowi’s “Indonesia-first policies,” with a focus on garnering greater respect for Indonesia in the global community. Nevertheless, his extensive international exposure and experience in engaging with state leaders and the international community suggest that his presence on the international stage will likely be more prominent than that of the current administration.

In the economic sector, the campaign team has outlined 21 commodities for the expansion of the downstream agenda, including technology, and has prioritized establishing the National Revenue Institution to bolster Indonesia’s tax ratio. However, potential implications for business operations, such as increased restrictions and scrutiny, as well as the rising cost of doing business and other compliance costs, may arise if these policies are not carefully formulated and implemented. Nevertheless, while the emphasis on continuity from the previous administration is evident, the intricate web of factions vying for influence over economic policy suggests a nuanced approach ranging from nationalist-driven agendas to pro-business orientations. As such, instead of being influenced by a single faction, the composition of Prabowo’s economic team and cabinet appointments will likely encompass a mix of the spectrum, requiring extensive understanding of the key figures and their objectives to navigate Indonesian economic policies going forward.

So, who do you think will comprise the cabinet under Prabowo-Gibran? Share your thoughts with us!

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