The Changing Global Landscape: Geopolitics, Economics, and Environmental Shifts

Geopolitics: A New World Order

The influence of the United States in the Global South has been declining, especially under President Trump. This isn’t just about the U.S. government’s policies—it’s also about how reliable the U.S. is as a global partner. People in regions like the Gulf, Africa, Central Asia, and Latin America often feel that they can do business with Trump, but the key issue is that the U.S.’s commitment is now uncertain. This has caused many to question whether America can still be seen as the “indispensable nation,” a term coined by Madeleine Albright in the 1990s.

Despite this, the U.S. may still maintain some influence, especially in the Americas. However, even that influence is likely to be less assertive. Some, like Senator Marco Rubio, have called for a new version of the Monroe Doctrine, but this idea remains uncertain.

Does this mean that China will inevitably rise to global dominance? Not necessarily. While China is positioning itself as a champion of globalization, its approach has its own challenges. For example, China is running large trade surpluses with the global South, and this could worsen with the ongoing U.S.-China trade war. There’s also the risk of an oversupply of Chinese products in the near future. Furthermore, China often ties its aid and investments to access to critical minerals and infrastructure, especially through initiatives like the Belt and Road.

In response, countries in the global South are increasingly skeptical of both U.S. and Chinese policies. As Ian Bremmer describes, we are moving into a “Gzero” world—one where no single country or bloc dominates. Emerging powers like India, Brazil, South Africa, Turkey, and Indonesia are shaping global diplomacy by balancing relationships with the U.S., China, and Europe, while strengthening ties with one another. While the BRICS countries have been a key platform for cooperation, this could evolve into something else in the future.

India and Brazil may choose not to take a leading role due to historical and political factors, while countries like Indonesia and Turkey remain “tier two” players for now. The Gulf States, especially the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar, are becoming more influential, using their financial power and soft diplomacy to expand their reach in the global South. As for Europe, its future role in this shifting global order remains uncertain.

National Politics & Risk: Populism and Economic Nationalism

Populism, political polarization, and “post-truth” politics are on the rise, not just in the U.S. but around the world. This shift is part of a broader global trend that is likely to continue. Additionally, economic nationalism is growing, as governments prioritize domestic interests. While the Trump administration’s policies may slow down global trade, they won’t stop it entirely.

Both the U.S. and China remain dependent on resources from around the world, and trade within regions, as well as between developing countries, is intensifying. Rather than looking at politics through the traditional left-right lens, we should focus on the key structural challenges nations face: economic development, energy security, demographics (like migration and dependency ratios), climate change impacts, and food security. These issues are particularly important in regions like South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa.

Environmental Policy & Regulation: A Global Challenge

Environmental policies are evolving rapidly across the globe, despite resistance in the U.S. to ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) principles. There’s a “contagion effect” where policies in one region often influence others. However, the primary concern is the unintended consequences of policies that are copied without considering local contexts.

In the global South, international institutions like the UN, World Bank, and IMF have significant influence in shaping environmental policy. These organizations help guide countries through international agreements, provide funding and technical assistance, and build local regulatory capacity. This is especially important in developing nations that rely on international support and are more likely to accept external regulations in exchange for trade and market access.

Business: Adapting to a Changing World

The evolving geopolitical landscape is reshaping global supply chains. The trend of “China plus one” (diversifying supply chains beyond China) is likely to continue. At the same time, the traditional model of global multinational corporations (MNCs) may be coming to an end. The idea that a company can operate the same way in China, the U.S., and other markets is increasingly unrealistic.

New partnerships are emerging, such as the collaboration between Microsoft and Abu Dhabi-based G42, which offer innovative ways to navigate the global South. Companies must now adapt to local consumer behavior, regulatory environments, and cultural dynamics. This has led to significant innovation in corporate strategies. For example, many multinationals now have hubs in India or the Middle East, with the region increasingly serving as a gateway to Africa.

The Middle East is also emerging as a key hub for Africa, with different regions of the continent—such as the Arab/Levant countries, resource-rich Sub-Saharan Africa, and major transportation hubs like Rwanda—driving future growth. Latin America remains important for many MNCs, but Brazil stands out as a particularly vital market, especially in light of the ongoing global trade war.

As the global trade war continues to evolve, its full impact remains unclear. But one thing is certain: businesses must stay flexible and be prepared for the volatility, uncertainty, and complexity ahead.