Tax reform is the word of the day in Brazil

Under Lula’s new government, Brazil’s economic ministries have been separated again, reversing Bolsonaro’s centralization. The Speyside Latin America team is closely analyzing Brazil's new government, a key high-growth and emerging market. Lula's move to split the Economy Ministry creates a new, complex power dynamic focused on tax reform and a "green" industrial policy. Understanding this landscape is critical for any Corporate Affairs strategy, as detailed in our latest report.

Tax reform is priority of the three ministries that administer the real economy: Finance (MF), Planning and Budget (MPO), and Development, Industry, Trade and Services (MDIC). Bolsonaro had united these three to form the Ministry of Economy, which concentrated too much decision power in just one person. Lula has rearranged these ministries to act as separate entities, just as before.

This means that the Industrial Policy is back on the agenda. This is important as Brazil is currently facing a severe industry crisis and is not the driving force contributing to the country’s GDP (it was once the main force, but now is behind services and farming sectors). Vice-President Geraldo Alckmin, the captain of MDIC, is putting all his chips into the green economy.

While Lula empowered three heavy politicians with important ministries, it has also made room for fights for protagonism. Let’s remember that Simone Tebet disputed the past Presidential election, and both Haddad and Alckmin were in the race in 2018. Alckmin also almost won in 2006, losing only to Mr. Lula in the second round. At this point in time, with Lula pledging that he will not go for a fourth term, all three names are in the run.

The success of these three ministries will depend on Lula’s ability to make them work together for a common objective, hence the tax reform.

At Speyside Group we have analyzed the economic landscape in Brazil and identified the main agendas and challenges ahead of the country’s administration. This report contains a brief local analysis of the Ministries of Finance (MF), Planning and Budget (MPO), and Development, Industry, Trade and Services (MDIC), along with the sector trends and opportunities that 2023 will bring to Brazil.

Download the report here: New Government: Finance agenda

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Conclusion

The split of the economic super-ministry into three distinct entities brings both opportunities and political tension. Each minister—Tebet, Haddad, and Alckmin—has presidential ambitions and considerable political weight, which may lead to rivalry but also push for results. Their collaboration is essential to deliver on key goals like tax reform and reviving Brazil’s struggling industrial sector. Lula’s ability to balance their influence and unify efforts will determine whether the country can navigate its economic challenges effectively in 2023 and beyond.

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